¡Yo No Fío!

Report: College degree worth extra $23,000 a year

2006-10-26T10:49:00.000-04:00

WASHINGTON (AP) -- How much is a bachelor's degree worth? About $23,000 a year, the government said in a report released Thursday. That is the average gap in earnings between adults with bachelor's degrees and those with high school diplomas, according to data from the Census Bureau. College graduates made an average of $51,554 in 2004, the most recent figures available, compared with $28,645 for adults with a high school diploma. High school dropouts earned an average of $19,169 and those with advanced college degrees made an average of $78,093.

To sell or not to sell?

2006-09-28T11:04:00.001-04:00

From CNN-Money:

Housing starts fall, confusion rises!!! The experts are putting out a lot of mixed signals about the housing market - so should you sell or not?

Follow the link (above) and read the article!

To sell or not to sell?

2006-09-28T11:04:00.000-04:00

From CNN-Money:

Housing starts fall, confusion rises! The experts are putting out a lot of mixed signals about the housing market - so should you sell or not?

Follow the link and read the article!

Good Fast Food? Yes, I give you Chipotle!

2006-09-14T15:09:00.000-04:00

So food with integrity means “ingredients that are sustainably grown and naturally raised with respect for the animals, the land and the farmers who produce the food." In other words, I am terribly sorry cow but I am about to kill you for a hamburger or something like that I guess! Now seriously, apparently there is much more than burritos and tacos at Chipotle.

Best Places to Retire

2006-09-14T14:57:00.000-04:00

Although I am not there yet, I can't see myself in Walla Walla!
Just say it Walla Walla :)

IMF: Housing market could slow U.S. GDP

2006-09-14T12:46:00.000-04:00

When the IMF talks we usually... listen!

The U.S. economy is headed for a slowdown caused by a cooling housing market, the International Monetary Fund warned Thursday, and that could drag on global growth. But China's booming economy shows no sign of slowing down, and that prompted the IMF to raise its global growth forecast for this year and next

Here we go again: The Estate Tax!

2006-06-06T09:40:00.000-04:00

Nice editorial from the NY Times:

"Still giddy over the passage last month of a $70 billion income tax cut for affluent Americans, Senate Republicans are hoping this week to go further, and gut the federal estate tax. And they'll probably try to accomplish this gift to the super-rich under the guise of compromise. "

Let it burn baby, let it burn!

2006-05-28T09:51:00.000-04:00

The NY Times reports that of the 5,000 private firefighters based in the Pacific Northwest (hired by state and federal governments) half are immigrants, mostly from Mexico. Now here is the kicker, many of them are working here illegally!!! What now, send them back, build a wall, and pray for rain???

Too much ado about nothing!

2006-05-27T10:11:00.000-04:00

Memorial Day weekend is here and just like a NASCAR competition almost every household with a car will go over the ritual: Start Your Engines! Almost 38 million people will travel during Memorial Day weekend, most of them by car (a record according to the AAA)! So, what happened to those complaints about high gas prices? According to the Department of Energy, by Monday we will have consumed about 36 billion gallons of gas driving around the United States. Relative to last year, gas prices are one average 75 cents higher and consumers are making only minor changes. Of course, the impact of higher energy prices is not evenly distributed, with lower income families feeling the pain much more than higher income families (what a surprise!).

According to a new report by the United States Conference of Mayors, energy expenditures in 2005 represented 5.9% of consumer spending, a 20.3% increase over 2004. Logically, this increase is having an impact on earnings. As the report explains, with earnings increasing by an average of 4.6% in 2005, energy expenditures equaled 9.0% (as a fraction of all wage and salary disbursements in 2005), or an increase of 1.5% over 2004. Translations: the increased in energy expenditures took away almost one third of last year’s earning gain. OUCH!

Snow in June!

2006-05-26T14:11:00.000-04:00

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow is going home in June!!! A short list of likely candidates for the job includes:

1. David Mulford, U.S. Ambassador to India
2. Carlos Gutierrez, Commerce Secretary
3. Don Evans, former Commerce chief
4. Samuel Bodman, Energy Secretary
5. Stephen Friedman, former Bush economic adviser

WNEConomics!

2006-05-26T11:20:00.000-04:00

Yes, another Blog in a sea full of them!!! However, this one promises to be quite interesting. The folks at the Department of Economics at Western New England College give you WNEConomics. How do I know that these guys are interesting? I was part of the department for three years (I am now at Central Connecticut State University--Go Blue Devils!!) Anyway, give it a try WNEConomics!

The Conservative Nanny State!

2006-05-26T11:08:00.000-04:00

You should check the latest work by Dean Baker The Conservative Nanny State (free e-book!). I was with Dean last year in a panel about the Clinton Economy and the guy is quite smart. Besides, you get free access to the book! BTW, you should also check Dean's Blog Beat the Press!

Praise for The Conservative Nanny State:

“Here is the brutal truth, exposed systematically, methodically, unsparingly. Forget the pork rinds and the hokey Texas twang: Conservative government is government by and for the upper class.”

– Thomas Frank, author of What's the Matter with Kansas? How Conservatives Won the Heart of America

“Dean Baker is one of the most insightful and original economists in Washington. With this book, he exposes the prevailing myth of modern conservatives. They are not for limited government, as they claim. Rather, they are for a government that helps their own. Baker says it is time to balance the books. Government is by all the people, for all the people. It's that simple.”

– Jeff Madrick, author of Why Economies Grow: The Forces That Shape Prosperity and How We Can Get Them Working Again

Pilots and Delta VS. Government and Retired Pilots!

2006-05-26T10:58:00.000-04:00

Delta Airlines, trying to recover from bankruptcy, negotiates an agreement with the pilots' union. Pilots are Ok with the agreement; Delta is OK with the agreement. However, retired pilots and the government are not happy.

Consumer Spending is up but I am not happy!

2005-11-01T09:24:00.000-05:00

Personal spending increased by .5% last month but before celebrating, look at the numbers closely. Money illusion is a very bad habit. In real terms, spending actually decreased (about .4%)!!!! That is, after taking the impact of oil and gas prices, there is no spending increase. Now, get closer to the panic button because as you know, consumer spending is about two-thirds of GDP!!! By the way, spending was down 1% in August as well!!! Feliz Día de los Muertos!!!

Bubblelicious!!!

2005-10-08T08:37:00.000-04:00

WSJ:

Reviewing the history of oil-market boom and bust confirms that we are in the midst of a classic oil bubble and that prices will eventually fall, perhaps dramatically. Despite apocalyptic warnings, the world is not running out of oil and the pumps are not going to run dry in our lifetimes -- or ever.

Four years in row!

2005-08-30T16:16:00.000-04:00

The poverty rate is up again (four years in a row!). There were 37 million individuals living in poverty last year. Although the number of people without health insurance went up (from 45 million to 45.8 million) there was a bigger increase (2 million) in the number of people with health insurance. (see full report)

Let there be “crash”!

2005-08-26T17:12:00.000-04:00

From WSJ:

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, saying the recent rise of stock and house prices reflects an increased willingness by investors to accept risk, warned Friday that this inclination could end badly for financial markets.

Why Does College Cost So Much?

2005-08-23T10:01:00.000-04:00

Interesting article in today’s WSJ. Did you know that, adjusted for inflation, tuition today is about triple what it was in the 1970s! In addition to the obvious (rising demand), the author also presents other culprits. My two favourites:

De-emphasizing Undergraduate Instruction: Data from the National Center for Education Statistics show that most colleges (but not community or liberal-arts colleges) have reduced the share of resources devoted to undergraduate teaching, spending more on other things -- research, administration, student services (luxurious recreational and student centers), athletics, etc. Only about 21 cents of each new inflation-adjusted dollar per student since 1976 actually went for "instruction." Government subsidies and private gifts given to support affordable undergraduate instruction are often spent elsewhere.

Price Discrimination: Universities have discovered what airlines realized a generation ago -- and they increasingly charge the maximum the customer will bear. They have raised sticker prices, giving discounts (scholarships) to those who are sensitive to price. Increasingly, these discounts go not mainly to low-income students but to talented students prized by universities seeking to improve ratings on the athletic field or in the U.S. News & World Report rankings.

The scary thing is that:

One consequence of rising costs is that college enrollments are no longer increasing as much as before. Price-sensitive groups like low-income students and minorities are missing out. A smaller proportion of Hispanics between 18 and 24 attend college today than in 1976. The U.S. is beginning to fall below some other industrial nations in population-adjusted college attendance.

Debtors in Rush to Bankruptcy as Change Nears

2005-08-21T06:51:00.000-04:00

From NYT (August 21, 2005):

Rushing to beat an October deadline when the biggest overhaul of the bankruptcy law in a quarter century goes into effect, rising numbers of Americans have filed for protection in the four months since the law was changed, seeking to have their debts erased.
After the introduction of the new law in April (goes into effect in October), bankruptcy filings have jumped considerably. In other words, since filling under Chapter 7 will be more difficult, families are rushing to bankruptcy trying to get in noticing that the Chapter 7 door is closing. Filings (April-July) are up 17 % over last in Cleveland, 22% in northern Iowa, and 14%i n Milwaukee, with similar patterns in the South, Midwest and rural West. Nationwide, fillings are up by 12 % over the same period last year.
Remember, under the new law if you earned more than the median income in your state and can repay at least $6,000 of your debt over a five-year period, you will no longer be able to have a new start under Chapter 7. On the contrary, your option will be repayment schedule under Chapter 13, and a court-supervised financial counseling program. Now according to Elizabeth Warren, families with children are three times more likely to file for bankruptcy, citing reasons like job loss, medical problems or family breakup. I wonder what will happen to individuals with interest only mortgages if rates keep going up. Also, could somebody please tell credit card companies to stop sending us those wonderful and irresistible offers!

Knowing When to Say 'When'

2005-08-12T08:52:00.000-04:00

When would the Fed stop pushing up rates? 54% of economists think the Fed will overshoot its target, while 46% think rates will remain too low!!! The general consensus is that the fed-fund rate will go to 4.5%. What about the “conundrum”? The notion that when the spread between short- and long-term rates narrows (an inverted yield curve), we are heading to a recession? The Fed is pushing short-term rates, while long-term rates are still low!!!

Rise in Supply of Homes for Sale Suggests Market Could Be Cooling

2005-08-12T08:43:00.000-04:00

From the WSJ:

To be sure, housing demand has appeared to stall at previous moments in the boom only to pick up steam again. Judging the strength of the housing market is especially tricky in August, which is normally a slow month for home sales because so many people are on vacation. A year ago, inventories also were up at this point in the year, but supplies grew tighter in some cities later in the year and prices kept surging.

Economists and real-estate analysts say they won't be able to determine whether the market as a whole is slowing until September or October at the earliest, and note that housing conditions vary among communities.

Here we go!

2005-08-04T10:16:00.000-04:00

Are we going to follow soon???

From the WSJ:

Bank of EnglandCuts Interest Rates

The U.K. economy, after expanding strongly in the past two years, has slowed substantially since the end of 2004, largely because of a slump in domestic consumption and housing prices. Economists are debating how long and severe the U.K.'s current downturn will be, and therefore how quickly and how far interest rates will fall.

Can a nation of spenders be saved?

2005-08-03T10:09:00.000-04:00

Three heavyweights on the economy: Hubbard (Columbia University and Bush Administration's Council of Economic Advisers 2001-03), Krugman (New York Times and Princeton University), and Peterson (chairman of The Blackstone Group and chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations 1972-73).

The Estate Tax in the Chopping Block!

2005-07-28T11:47:00.000-04:00

Grover Norquist, President of Americans for Tax Reform tells us that:

[W]e Americans pay taxes when we earn our paychecks, when we save, when we invest, when we buy products and services, and then, when we are foolish enough to die, the government wants half of what is left. (emphasis is mine).

He then goes on and explains that:

Polls show that 70 percent of the American public believes death should not be a taxable event and that families should not be punished for saving to pass on the fruits of their hard work to their heirs. It speaks very much to the health of the nation that such a large plurality of Americans want to abolish the death tax because they see it as fundamentally unjust.

However, as Gene Sperling explains, the elimination of the Estate Tax is equivalent to a $13 billion dollars giveaway in tax breaks to about 750 wealthiest estates in 2011 alone. In other words, the 750 most affluent American families will get together in a big PowWow( with utmost respect to Native Americans, the term has also been used to refer to any meeting, but especially a congress, a friendly gathering, or a meeting of powerful people) to divide $13 billion among themselves! Let me think for one second here…humm.. Iraq War, poverty rate of over 30% among minority children, Social Security, Medicare, Homeland Security…should I continue?

According to the OMB Watch:

Abroad majority of Americans support reforming the estate tax to protect small business owners and family farms over permanent repeal that gives more tax breaks to multi-millionaires at the expense of 99 percent of taxpayers.

Furthermore, following OMB Watch, if you actually explain the issue of repealing the Estate Tax, Americans support reform over repeal as soon as they understand who actually pays the estate tax and what repeal of the tax would cost!

From OMB Watch:

Americans overwhelmingly support reform of the estate tax over a permanent repeal, and they identify the following guiding principles for reform:

- Protect small business owners and family farmers.

- Keep 99 percent of American taxpayers exempt from the estate tax.

- Protect the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.

- Ensure the federal government can meet its obligations to the war on terrorism, homeland security, education, and health care.

- Permanent reform that simplifies the law and sets a consistent benchmark for eligibility.

BERNANKE on the Economy!

2005-07-27T10:02:00.000-04:00

BEN S. BERNANKE July 27, 2005; WSJ, Page A12:

On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will provide its first estimate of economic growth for the second quarter of 2005, and the experts will be debating: too hot, too cold, or just right? It's a good moment to pause to reflect on how far the American economy has come in the past couple of years and to consider the prospects for future growth.

Unions’ Woes II!

2005-07-24T18:56:00.000-04:00

Labor Organizations Losing Ground

byFrank Langfitt (NPR, July 25, 2005):

A decline in union membership in the United States has been steady and profound in recent years, despite efforts by labor organizations to get a foothold in fast-growing sectors of the economy such as telecommunications.

Unions’ Woes!

2005-07-24T18:41:00.000-04:00

Four Major Unions to Boycott AFL-CIO Convention

Associated Press July 24, 2005 :

CHICAGO – Organized labor split into warring factions Sunday as four major unions staged a boycott of the AFL-CIO convention, poised to sever ties to the 50-year-old federation in a dispute over how to reverse the decades-long decline of union membership.

The Peg is over!

2005-07-21T10:20:00.000-04:00

From CNN (Money):

In a move that could trim the trade gap with the United States, China revalued its currency higher against the dollar Thursday and said it would no longer have the yuan tied to a fixed rate against the U.S. currency.

The Health Benefits of Marriage!

2005-07-20T15:30:00.000-04:00

Did you know that the health benefits of marriage could be as high as the benefits from quitting smoking! Check this paper by Wilson and Oswald. However, given the high divorce rate in the US, I’m guessing marriage is not a hard habit to break!

Greenspan and rates!

2005-07-20T13:52:00.000-04:00

From WSJ:

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday the U.S. central bank thinks the U.S. economy is on "firm footing" and expects inflation to stay tame, but he made it clear the Fed isn't finished with the campaign of interest-rate increases it began in 2004.

Krugman on Karl Rove!

2005-07-17T19:01:00.000-04:00

Krugman:

John Gibson of Fox News says that Karl Rove should be given a medal. I agree: Mr. Rove should receive a medal from the American Political Science Association for his pioneering discoveries about modern American politics. The medal can, if necessary, be delivered to his prison cell.

Freakonomics in the NY Times!

2005-07-16T00:10:00.000-04:00

Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt, authors of Freakonomics, now write a monthly column in the NY Times called (what else!) Freakonomics! Check out their web page for more information.

Feldstein on Social Security!

2005-07-15T12:07:00.000-04:00

Feldstein:
Adding voluntary savings through salary deductions to these personal retirement accounts would substantially strengthen this reform. After the Social Security surpluses end in 2017, a voluntary savings plan would continue to add to personal retirement accounts, providing a more secure future retirement. The key to the success of such a voluntary add-on plan is to combine automatic enrollment with the ability of each individual to opt out if he or she does not want to participate. Experience with the 401(k) plans of private firms shows that this combination of automatic enrollment with the right to opt out leads to participation rates of 80% or more even when there are no employer matching contributions.

You need to read the entire OP-ED to understand his proposal, which by the way is interesting. Now, correct me if I am wrong, but the shortfall estimates are based on the assumption of 1.8% growth. When was the last time we confronted 1.8% growth??? Should we really be talking about shortfalls?

School Achievement Gap Is Narrowing

2005-07-15T11:10:00.000-04:00

From The Washington Post:

The NAEP study of long-term educational trends showed a significant improvement among white, black and Hispanic 9-year-olds in the 2003-2004 school year in math and reading, compared with results from five years earlier. But blacks and Hispanics made greater gains than whites in both subjects.

"There is a lot of good news here," said Darvin Winick, chairman of the National Assessment Governing Board. "While the differences are still too large, we are happy to see that there has been some narrowing" between whites and minorities, he said.

Modest gains were registered by 13-year-olds, particularly in math, but the performance of 17-year-olds remained flat, bolstering the widespread belief that high schools are the weakest link in the American education system.

A Tale of Two Countries: India and China!

2005-07-14T11:40:00.000-04:00

This is a very interesting piece by Panagariya, a brief from a longer paper in the next issue of The Far Eastern Economic Review. As he explains, an important limitation India confronts is the poor performance of its industrial sector.

Though trade has grown rapidly in both countries, it has grown far more rapidly in China. Exports of goods and services grew at the annual rate of 15.2% compared with 10.7% in India. By 2003, China's share in world exports hit a noticeable 5.8% while that of India remained virtually invisible at below 1%. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India expanded manifold in the '90s over '80s, but it remained less than one-tenth the level achieved by China.

The single most important factor explaining these differences is the relatively poor performance of Indian industry. Whereas the share of industry in China's GDP rose from a high level of 42% in 1990 to 51% in 2000, it remained virtually stagnant in India. By contrast, Indian service grew rapidly, expanding its share from 41% in 1990 to 48% in 2000. This trend has continued in the last five years.

Karl Rove, Whistleblower?

2005-07-13T16:39:00.000-04:00

From The WSJ:

Democrats and most of the Beltway press corps are baying for Karl Rove's head over his role in exposing a case of CIA nepotism involving Joe Wilson and his wife, Valerie Plame. On the contrary, we'd say the White House political guru deserves a prize -- perhaps the next iteration of the "Truth-Telling" award that The Nation magazine bestowed upon Mr. Wilson before the Senate Intelligence Committee exposed him as a fraud.

Bloggers learn the price of telling too much!

2005-07-13T16:30:00.000-04:00

From CNN.com

CHICAGO, Illinois (AP) -- Blogs are everywhere -- increasingly, the place where young people go to bare their souls, to vent, to gossip. And often they do so with unabashed fervor and little self-editing, posting their innermost thoughts for any number of Web surfers to see.

Picture of the day!

2005-07-12T23:19:00.000-04:00

The AMT: coming to a home near you (or yours) soon!

2005-07-12T22:55:00.000-04:00

Always remember that the road to hell is paved with good intentions! Anyway, the AMT, an invention from the 1960s, was created by Congress to prevent rich (emphasis on super rich) individuals from taking advantage of loopholes in our beloved tax code, and thus, paying zero federal income taxes. This parallel tax structure forces you to calculate your taxes twice (do I hear opportunity cost?), if your AMT bill is higher than your 1040… well you know what happens! Now here is the problem. Although the intention was to capture the rich, the AMT has never been indexed to inflation!!!!!! As a result, today it stands at $58,000 for married couples and $40,250 for single taxpayers. In other words, the AMT is now a tax on middle income America! Here is a link to more information. Just to share my humble thoughts on taxation, maybe it is time to bring a national consumption tax! I know, fairness, fairness, fairness! Well, how about if we exempt basic necessities, something like the Massachusetts sales tax (if it is good for MA, it should be good for US!). However, why stop there? Give an incentive so that states will eliminate their income taxes as well. This is my crazy idea: a national consumption tax of 20%, of which 14% goes back to Washington and 6% stays in the states. However, we also need reform at the state level. The 6% that states get to keep should be allocated in terms of population (hey, we could use the IRS to do this calculation!). This way, cities like Springfield-MA (the third largest city in the state in terms of population) will not be penalized when the baked beans are allocated because of its location (not close enough to Boston as other smaller and richer cities!). Just a thought!

Best Places to Live 2005

2005-07-11T10:24:00.000-04:00

From CNN.com:

MONEY magazine and CNN/Money spent months looking for Great American Towns -- where you would want to raise your children and celebrate life's milestones. Starting with more than 1,300 cities, we settled on 10 winners.

The Mars Hoax

2005-07-11T09:31:00.000-04:00

From NASA.gov:

Earth and Mars are converging for a close encounter--but not as close as some people think. There's a rumor going around. You might have heard it at a 4th of July BBQ or family get-together. More likely you've read it on the Internet. It goes like this:

"The Red Planet is about to be spectacular."

"Earth is catching up with Mars [for] the closest approach between the two planets in recorded history."

"On August 27th … Mars will look as large as the full moon."

And finally, "NO ONE ALIVE TODAY WILL EVER SEE THIS AGAIN."

Those are snippets from a widely-circulated email. Only the first sentence is true. The Red Planet is about to be spectacular. The rest is a hoax.

The Church vs. Workers

2005-07-10T17:25:00.000-04:00

From NPR: Catholic Church Workers Battle for Right to Unionize:

Unionized workers at five Catholic parishes in Texas say church leaders are guilty of union-busting. The employees are believed to be the first Catholic Church workers to reach a collective-bargaining agreement. A panel of canon lawyers is looking into whether the contracts are legal, according to church law.

If you follow Pope Leo XIII (Encyclical Letter: On the Condition of the Working Classes, pp.18-19):

Workers are not to be treated as slaves; justice demands that the dignity of human personality be respected in them, ennobled as it has been through what we call the Christian character.

It is shameful and inhuman, however, to use men as things for gain and to put no more value on them than what they are worth in muscle and energy.

Among the most important duties of employers the principal one is to give every worker what is justly due him. Assuredly, to establish a rule of pay in accord with justice, many factors must be taken into account. But, in general, the rich and employers should remember that no laws, either human or divine, permit them for their own profit to oppress the needy and the wretched or to seek gain from another’s want. To defraud anyone of the wage due him is a great crime that calls down avenging wrath from Heaven. “Behold the wages of the laborers… which have been kept back by you unjustly, cry out: and their cry has entered into the ears of the Lord of Hosts”

Intelligent Design vs. Evolution II

2005-07-10T13:59:00.000-04:00

More on evolution vs. design, but this time in an OP-ED piece (Finding Design in Nature) in the NYT from Christoph Schonborn, the Roman Catholic Cardinal Archbishop of Vienna, and editor of the official 1992 Catechism of the Catholic Church.

Now at the beginning of the 21st century, faced with scientific claims like neo-Darwinism and the multiverse hypothesis in cosmology invented to avoid the overwhelming evidence for purpose and design found in modern science, the Catholic Church will again defend human reason by proclaiming that the immanent design evident in nature is real. Scientific theories that try to explain away the appearance of design as the result of ''chance and necessity'' are not scientific at all, but, as John Paul put it, an abdication of human intelligence.

The Academic Job Market and Blogs!

2005-07-10T10:33:00.000-04:00

If you are in the academic job market, be very careful with your blog (if you have one). A recent article in the The Chronicle of Higher Ed explains why:

A candidate's blog is more accessible to the search committee than most forms of scholarly output. It can be hard to lay your hands on an obscure journal or book chapter, but the applicant's blog comes up on any computer. Several members of our search committee found the sheer volume of blog entries daunting enough to quit after reading a few. Others persisted into what turned out, in some cases, to be the dank, dark depths of the blogger's tormented soul; in other cases, the far limits of techno-geekdom; and in one case, a cat better off left in the bag.
The content of the blog may be less worrisome than the fact of the blog itself. Several committee members expressed concern that a blogger who joined our staff might air departmental dirty laundry (real or imagined) on the cyber clothesline for the world to see. Past good behavior is no guarantee against future lapses of professional decorum.

Not every case is so consequential. And in truth, we did not disqualify any applicants based purely on their blogs. If the blog was a negative factor, it was one of many that killed a candidate's chances.

More often that not, however, the blog was a negative, and job seekers need to eliminate as many negatives as possible.

The econ job market is about to open in a couple of months (ASSA is going to Boston this time!). So, candidates, you better clean-up your blogs!

Intelligent Design vs. Evolution Debate

2005-07-08T23:18:00.000-04:00

If you are interested in the creationism/intelligent design vs. evolution debate, you will enjoy this article from Ken Miller. In this piece, Miller confronts one of Michael J. Behe’s hallmarks (maybe the most important) for irreducible complexity: the bacterial flagellum. Enjoy, if you like this kind of stuff!

Obesity Obsession!

2005-07-08T14:09:00.000-04:00

I had a blast watching Morgan Spurlock at Jimmy Kimmel Live last night. If you don’t know Spurlock, he is the guy from Super Size Me (Academy Award Nominee Documentary). He also has a new book (Don’t Eat this Book) as a sequel to the documentary, and new a TV series on FX (30 Days). I buy into the idea that we, as a nation, are getting fat, with potential terrible consequences (diabetes, heart disease, elevated cholesterol and blood pressure…). However, I have some problems with the way in which this “crisis” is presented. For example, Paul Krugman in his July 4th column argues that:

The great majority of us (yes, me too) are now overweight, and the percentage of adults considered obese has doubled, to more than 30 percent. Most alarmingly, obesity, once rare among the young, has become common among adolescents, and even among children.

OK, this is true. However, we need to remember (see article) that in 1998 the government readjusted its definition of “obesity.” For all practical purposes the bar was lowered by the CDC and in 1998, 30 million individuals woke up overweight and it was not the result of binge eating the night before! These individuals were not at risk of confronting the terrible consequences before the change. However, overnight they were!!! Also, obesity is good business for the $40 billion weight loss industry and will try to have an influence(see the care of Xavier Pi-Sunyer in the same article).

The principal tool to know if you are obese is the Body Mass Index (BMI). Now, I have plenty of problems with the BMI. There is no control for sex, gender, age, and of course ethnicity. Also, as I understand, there is no distinction between muscle and fat tissue. So, the Incredible Hulk (a mass of muscle), as well as Will Smith, Tom Brady, Kobe Bryant, and even President Bush are overweight! From the CDC:

Two people can have the same BMI, but a different percent body fat. A bodybuilder with a large muscle mass and a low percent body fat may have the same BMI as a person who has more body fat because BMI is calculated using weight and height only.

Another thing, while we are now a nation of meat eaters, according to the USDA, there has been a 20% increase in the consumption of per capita fresh fruit and vegetable consumption since the 1970s (see Table 2-4 in the report). Now, this brings the topic of the Rich-Poor Gap or “cultural elitisms”. In other words, poor individuals are having a difficult time because food and vegetable consumption is expensive and the cheaper alternative is junk/fast food (is this an argument in favor of Wal-Mart Superstores?) . For example Krugman argues that:

On average, people living outside metropolitan areas are heavier than urban or suburban residents, and people in the South and Midwest are heavier than those on the coasts. So it's all too easy for worries about America's weight to come off as cultural elitism.

I have two problems with this line of argument. First, according to the USDA (as reported in Boston.com), we can get the well-known daily servings of fruits and vegetables for just 64 cents! Furthermore, the largest increase in obesity from the 1970s to the early 2000s is found the income group making more than $60,000.

Nonetheless, yes, require schools to serve healthier lunches. Try to work out a bit (no need to go extreme running marathons of climbing mountains like my colleague Dr. Michael Enz, if you are just starting!). Finally, if you go to McDonalds, eat a salad (they are not that bad!).

What Makes You Click?

2005-07-07T14:21:00.000-04:00

Online dating is a growing industry. Following Hal Varian’s recent article in the NYT, about 40 million Americans utilized an online dating service in 2003, and, in 2005, the industry should capture more than $500 million in revenues. However, what exactly makes you click? A new paper by Gunter J. Hitsch, Ali Hortacsu (University of Chicago) and Dan Ariely (MIT), tries to confront this question by analyzing the experiences of users of these services. Among the findings:

The reported weights of women were considerably less than national averages.
Approximately 30 percent of women were blonde.
Definitely, money talks. Men that reported incomes above $250,000 received 156% more email messages than those reporting incomes below $50,000.
Inner beauty?!? Posting your picture helps plenty. Females posting their photos get almost twice as many emails than females that do not, even if they report having "average looks."
Finally, my favorite: intended goals! Men looking for a “long-term relationship” get much more emails than men that are “just looking/curious.” If your goal, as a male, is ‘‘seeking a casual relationship” you will get about 42% fewer emails! However, a female with this goal gets about 17% more emails!!

Check the paper!

Economics is back as a popular major!

2005-07-06T13:17:00.000-04:00

From the WSJ (The Hot Major for Undergrads Is Economics by Jessica E. Vascellaro, Staff Reporter of the Wall Street Journal. July 5, 2005; Page A11):

U.S. colleges and universities awarded 16,141 degrees to economics majors in the 2003-2004 academic year, up nearly 40% from five years earlier, according to John J. Siegfried, an economics professor at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn., who tracks 272 colleges and universities around the country for the Journal of Economic Education.

The trend marks a big switch for the so-called dismal science, which saw big declines in undergraduate enrollments in the early 1990s as interest in other areas, like sociology, was growing. Behind the turnaround is a clear-eyed reading of supply and demand: In a global economy filled with uncertainty, many students see economics as the best vehicle for a job promising good pay and security.

In addition to probing the mechanics of inflation and exchange rates, academics now use statistics and an economist's view of how people respond to incentives to study issues such as AIDS, obesity and even terrorism. The surprise best-seller of the spring was "Freakonomics," a book co-authored by a University of Chicago economist, Steven Levitt, which examines issues ranging from corruption among real estate agents to sumo wrestling.

Incidentally, if you are taking my EC 201 (Principles of Micro), you will read and write a review about Freakonomics!